Before we start diving into our beloved numbers and our beloved super in-depth analyses, there’s a topic I care about sharing.
If you don’t know how much you want to earn and in how much time, you’ve already lost from the start: you don’t have an indicator or a map telling you if you’re going in the right direction.
The result of all this? You’ll feel completely and perpetually unsatisfied.
Browsing the web, social media, or simply scrolling through the sports schedule, you’ll always have your attention on the opportunities you’re not seizing rather than on what you’ve actually done, and this FOMO (fear of missing out) will gradually wear you down until you can’t enjoy anything about the journey you’re undertaking, but are constantly anxious about what you’re not doing.
Therefore, the first thing to do after reading this entire article, understand how much money you want to make and in how much time, after that everything will become easier (obviously with figures that make at least some sense).
How to calculate desired profit sensibly: some tips
First of all, always consider profit as a percentage on the initial investment.
You see, out there there are a lot of services that sell smoke telling you that in one season they managed to earn €1,000, €5,000, €10,000, etc..
The truth is that they don’t tell you the amount invested to achieve that profit. Saying you’ve earned €1,000, €10,000 or €100,000 means nothing if you don’t know the starting figure and thus calculate the return on investment (ROI).
To earn €1,000, was €5,000 or €50,000 invested?
What risks are there in that investment? There’s a big difference!
Start thinking like an investor and not like a gambler who only gets tempted by the final figure they read. Ask yourself the right questions.
When you internalize thoughts like “I started with €1,000 in my account, now after 1 month I have €1,500 and therefore I’ve earned +50% on my capital”, you’ll then be on the right path.
Having made this necessary premise, to be able to shape our return on investment we need reliable historical data, otherwise, without data, the goal is not only not a well-defined plan, but is merely a dream.
Why do I say this?
It’s very simple, most betting strategies you find on the web simply don’t work in the long term (at least 3 years). I challenge you to find a supposed tipster on the web with a positive track record of at least 5 years.
It’s true therefore that we’re talking about investment (sports in this case), but there’s a huge difference with classic financial investment.
Exactly, temporal solidity.
Temporal solidity allows us to face each day with the tranquility and security of knowing in the long term where we’re going, and not live with the fear that what we’re doing is wrong. An investment that works well for 3 months is simply not an investment, but a stroke of luck, it’s good to clarify this.
If at the first creak of our betting strategy we don’t have historical data telling us what happens in that specific situation, all our certainties will fade and we’ll be incentivized to give up everything, clearly playing into the bookmakers’ game, which thrives on bettors’ variance and fear.
As already mentioned therefore, but always better to reiterate, it’s fundamental to work with strategies that have already proven to work over time and it’s not at all obvious to have them available.
Before investing real money you must verify the validity and temporal stability of each strategy, otherwise you’re simply chasing a dream.
Going back to comparing sports investment and financial, it’s true that financial investments yield very little, but they’ve been doing so for much longer than your favorite tipster.
For example, the S&P500 index (which is one of the most profitable ever) makes just under 10% per year on average, but the fact that it’s been doing it for over 50 years is enormous value, which we don’t have in the world of sports investment.
Little historical data therefore means only one thing, greater risk.
Let’s be clear, in betting you can’t settle for +10% annually if your risk is much higher compared to a classic investment. And if the risk is greater, the expected return must be higher.
In betting we have totally different variables, for example the maximum capital exposure which in those who are more reckless can even reach 100% of their own capital, something that never happens with financial investments. When you lose 10% it’s seen as a major crash, while in betting going down 10% at certain times is a fairly common situation.
Precisely for this reason, the number 1 goal you must set yourself when doing sports investment is not to have a – (minus) sign at the end of the year.
I don’t want to ruin your expectations, but neither do I want to sell dreams, and if you’ve read the very first article of TheBettorDiary (the one about bookmakers’ margin), you’ll already know that they have a mathematical advantage that you don’t have and that it’s always more likely that the opportunity will arise for you to lose money in this world.
They’re playing a different game from mine and yours, and even if you and I can be profitable, they always profit from the mass of players anyway, mathematically.
Sports investment is a high-volatility ecosystem, where risk control, bankroll management and data solidity matter more than immediate profit.
The real goal isn’t “making money now”, but staying in the game long enough to build a lasting statistical edge.
Well..
This article was getting really long, so I decided to split it in two: this first part where we talked about the basics, both mental and mathematical, while in the second part we’ll close the circle with numbers that in my opinion should be the guide for every conscious bettor.
See you next time!